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Dallas Mavericks - Sacramento Kings    (lost)

USA » NBA » regular season 

Few reasons for me to believe that Kings are the pick here. Overall they are at 50% ATS but on the road they are 16-11 59.3% which is 5th best road ATS in the league. This % is going even higher (61.9) when they are road underdogs. I was writing earlier many times how Sacramento is team to avoid in favorite role but bet on when they are underdog. And nothing has changed about that in last two seasons.
Dallas on the other side overall is one of best ATS teams (54.9% of covered games which is 7th best). But if we take a look only on their home games, then this % drops to terrible 37% which is 4th worst home ATS record in the league. So, stats clearly back this pick.
Second and probably more important reason is the fact Luka Dončić is back to Dallas roster tonight and for me that is big bet against Dallas. We saw it many times, one of best players if not the best is out for a while and when he returns, opposite of expectations, the team start struggling for few first games. We already saw this exactly on Dallas' when Luka returned after first longer absence earlier in the season, the same I expect now after this return from second long absence. Also Oladipo and Indiana Pacers are typical example, only there struggling was way longer than usual. 
And finally third reason is the fact Kings found a little bit right rhythm as of late so IMO they should keep this close. 

Published: 13-02-2020, 01:09 CET Pick: Sacramento +9.5
Odds: 1.83 at bwin


Category: NBA basketball
Date: 12-02-2020
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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