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Darderi L. - Nakashima B.    (won)

Darderi has improved a lot this season on hard courts. I remember a couple of years ago, he was an instant fade on that surface. He is still far away from being a consistent challenger on fast surfaces but he did play decent in Montreal. Yet, Diallo retired after the 1st set, Shang was beaten in 3 sets and the Chinese comes back from injury, but the win against Borges was a good one. Darderi has raw power but he lacks proper hard court tennis mechanics.

Nakashima is by far the better hard court player. He has the more consistent serve, steadier baseline game and more regular backhand. Last season, they met in Vienna (indoor hard court) and Nakashima very easily won without even giving a break point opportunity. Things will certainly be different today, but Nakashima still has the edge. He won against Altmaier, Droguet and Rinderknech. Only against the French serve bot he didn't cover this line.

The odds are surprisingly good. I believe a lot of people are still backing the Italian. Yet, I think it might be the wrong way to call this match. Nakashima destroyed Droguet after dropping the first set in a lazy fashion and still covered the spread. While Rinderknech saved his ass so many times with the first serve. 

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Published: 11-08-2026, 13:07 CET Pick: Nakashima B. -3.5 AH games
Odds: 2.1 at Paddy Power


Category: ATP tennis
Date: 11-08-2026
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)



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