Dortmund vs Barcelona    (won)

Dortmund vs Barcelona

In the first leg, Dortmund suffered a 0-4 defeat, with Kovač’s 4-3-3 formation utterly failing. Wingers Adeyemi and Gittens had minimal impact, with fewer touches than goalkeeper Kobel. For this match, Dortmund is likely to switch to a three-center-back system featuring Bensebaini, Anton, and Süle, aiming to press Barcelona in midfield and capitalize on their fervent home support. In the group stage, Dortmund lost 2-3 at home to Barcelona but generated 0.7 more expected goals, suggesting they can compete at home.

Barcelona, holding a four-goal lead, can afford to rest players. With intense pressure from the league title race and an upcoming Copa del Rey final, the squad, particularly Yamal, is fatigued, making this a prime opportunity to rest him. Without Yamal, Barcelona’s attack weakens significantly, as their struggles this season have coincided with his absences. Barcelona’s left flank is vulnerable after Balde’s injury, with replacement Martín unlikely to match the speed of Dortmund’s wingers. Additionally, Barcelona’s possession-based style struggles when leading, having been overturned in past Champions League ties despite three-goal advantages. Notably, Barcelona will wear white shorts, a kit choice linked to a shock loss against relegation-threatened Las Palmas earlier this season.

Dortmund are poised to at least avoid defeat at home and could even win.