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Duckworth - Nadal    (won)

ATP Australian Open

How is Nadal? This is a good question. Rafa played his last official match in September 2018 against Del Potro in the semi-final of the US Open, he retired in the second set due to right knee injury. A few months later he underwent a minor surgery on his left ankle ending the season. So let's go back to the last days; Nadal played an exhibition in Mubadala and lost to Anderson 4-6 6-3 6-4. I saw something of that match and Nadal looked pretty poor. Then Rafa should have played in Brisbane, but he withdrawn due to small staring on his left thigh (nothing serious, it was just a precautionary measure). Lastly he played another exhibition in Perth called Fast 4 Tennis with special rules, Rafa lost to Kyrgios 4-0 3-4(3) 5-3. I haven't seen anything of this, but I have looked into this match and it looks like Nadal was decent overall. Rafa also changed his service motion. I'm not sure what to expect from this match, Nadal should be competitive at the end, but I think he won't show a strong performance. Duckworth hits hard the ball, he is a good server and plays at home. It's likely Nadal can concede something like a long set or even Duckworth to win it. One break per set for Nadal would be fine as well. The over 28.5 looks valuable here. I will also put a super small stake on Duckworth ML because I'm crazy.
Published: 11-01-2019, 01:30 CET Pick: Over 28.5
Odds: 1.78 at Pinnacle


Category: ATP tennis
Date: 14-01-2019
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)




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