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Dunfermline Athletic v Albion Rovers    (won)

Dunfermline -2 @ 1.90 B365/Sing. Was on SBO/Pin etc earlier but removed for now, take 1.75+ if it continues to shorten.

This is the bet which jumped out straight away in this round of cup fixtures, as expected it’s been backed in a fair bit over the last few days but still nice value here imo as we should see a comfortable home win. 

Dunfermline look set for another season finishing in the middle part of the second tier, they don’t look strong enough to challenge at the top end yet are not weak enough (at least on paper) to get dragged in to a relegation fight. This is their managers first summer transfer window at the club so no surprise there’s been a fair turnaround with sixteen leaving and eleven new arrivals so far. Their first match has put them in pole position to win this group and they looked an improved side in their away win at Premiership side St Mirren. They were ruthless in front of goal which is something they lacked last season and Kevin Nisbet should really be amongst the goals again tonight against a significantly poorer defence. There shouldn’t be any big changes to the team as St Mirren also play tonight so a win is a must to stay ahead at the top of the group and with goal difference the tiebreaker the more goals they score the better. 

 

Albion are two tiers below and somehow avoided the relegation play-off last season by winning five of their final nine league games. Themselves and Berwick last campaign were probably two of the poorest sides to ever play in the SPFL and with Berwick being replaced by Cove they will struggle again this year. Lots of players left the club as you would expect after an awful season but replacements only look marginally stronger and they are rightly favourites to finish bottom of the pile. Like the hosts, they also managed to collect three points at the weekend beating Lowland League (tier 5) East Kilbride 1-0. This result was false with Kilby dominating large parts of the game before going down to an excellent strike direct from a free kick. Going off their previous games against higher level opposition they will play very defensively and try nick something on the break but I can’t see how they manage to get anything – just getting out of Fife without being taken apart will be a moral victory for them really.

 

The visitors have had an extra days rest however I think that will be more than negated by the fact it’s full time v part time – always a chance Albion will be without a few due to work commitments etc. and tiredness should be a factor later in the tie for them. Looking back at Albion’s league cup games from last season they played two Championship sides (Ayr and Partick) and the line at kick-off was +/-2.25. Both those ties were at home so with Dunfermline having home advantage and a real chance of winning this group -2 is simply not a big enough handicap. Worth trying some tiny stakes on bigger lines as an early goal can probably result in an away collapse and a pretty big home win. Gl

Published: 17-07-2019, 08:06 CET Pick: Dunfermline -2
Odds: 1.9 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: Scottish football
Date: 17-07-2019
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 6)



LittyBittyBoy 17-07-2019, 21:58
Thx

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