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Errani - Hercog    (lost)

WTA Rome [Qualifying]

I think Hercog is a wrong favourite in this matchup, she doesn't have the necessary composure to stay in the rally with a grinder like Errani and eventually overpower her consistently. Sara was good in R1Q (6-3 6-2 over Watson), but as usual my focus was on the number of her DFs (only 1 in 16 second serves), that's to say she can still win easily against these fading opponents if things with her serve don't turn into a circus, the same may happen today otherwise it should be a dramatic 3-setter. Errani and Hercog haven't met for a long time, but Sara still has a perfect 3-0 lead confirming the matchup favourable to her. Obviously it's important to support Errani when she has at least one match under her belt in a tournament, however she really wants to reach the Roma main draw playing at home and Hercog is definitely beatable. I think I would have backed Errani even with equal ML odds, but why not go safer with +2.5 games which is a solid pick.
Published: 09-05-2021, 04:35 CET Pick: Errani +2.5 Games
Odds: 1.91 at Pinnacle


Category: WTA tennis
Date: 09-05-2021
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)




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