Espanyol-Real Madrid    (won)

From a standings perspective, neither Espanyol nor Real Madrid have a truly urgent objective in this match, but their motivation levels are quite different. Espanyol built a relatively comfortable cushion in the first half of the season, yet their competitive edge has clearly faded since then. Since the start of 2026, they have gone 16 league matches without a win, which says a lot about their form, confidence and overall mentality. There is also a subtle derby-related factor: taking points from Real Madrid could indirectly help their city rivals Barcelona secure the title early. Under that backdrop, it is difficult to expect Espanyol to fight with maximum intensity.

Real Madrid’s title hopes may only exist in theory, but several players still have strong personal motivation. Jude Bellingham has returned from injury and needs to prove his form again as he competes for a starting role with England at the World Cup. Trent Alexander-Arnold also needs strong performances to strengthen his case for England’s final squad. Meanwhile, players such as Eduardo Camavinga and Franco Mastantuono have been linked with potential departures, but they will naturally want to show their value and avoid being pushed out. In other words, Real Madrid may not have a strong title push left, but many individuals still have clear reasons to perform.

The recent downturn in Real Madrid’s results is closely linked to the return of Kylian Mbappé to the starting lineup. Before he started again, Madrid had won five consecutive matches. Since his return to the starting eleven, they have won only once in six games. His overlapping zones with Vinícius Júnior and limited defensive work rate have affected the team’s balance. With Mbappé ruled out through injury here, Madrid may actually look more structured in attack and more stable without the ball. Against an Espanyol side lacking form and motivation, Real Madrid have a logical path to win and cover.

Pick: Real Madrid -0.75