Espanyol welcome Celta Vigo for this Spanish La Liga round 15 clash at RCDE Stadium on Saturday November 30. Espanyol were promoted from the La Liga 2 (back) to the first tier for this season. They have, as I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis, struggled this season.. They simply lack the quality in defence, midfield and offense to do well at this level! They are in 20th (last) place in my power ranking, slightly below Valladolid.. The sophisticated power ranking reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven – excluding "special" factors – such as motivation and fatigue - caused by a tough schedule.. Espanyol's number of expected points (xPTS) is the lowest in this league – 8.56 to be precise. Espanyol have scored only 12 goals and their number of expected goals (xG) is 11.45. Their defence has a poor structure and stupid individual mistakes have been pretty common.. They have conceded a high 26 goals, which is the second-highest number in La Liga. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is even a little bigger - 28.04. Espanyol have lost four of their last five games. In La Liga they have suffered four consecutive defeats and are most probably not high in confidence.. In their most recent match they lost to Girona 1-4 on the road. Yes, Girona were, of course, the favourites - priced around 1.65-1.70 to win by the bookmakers - but the match was more imbalanced than the odds reflected.. Indeed, Girona had a whopping 75% ball possession and recorded several more goal attempts than Espanyol. Moreover, they allowed Espanyol only one shot on goal, recording five themselves. The xG numbers were 3.56-0.49 in the hosts' favour. Before this they were not terrible but lost to Barcelona 1-3 away from home. Barcelona, however, were not quite at their best in this game.. Even so, they had 77% ball possession and generated much more in xG than Espanyol - 2.21-0.74 to be precise. On the 31st of October Espanyol defeated a very small team, San Tirso, 4-0 on the road. It was a Copa del Rey clash. Espanyol were priced around 1.01-1.02 to eliminate San Tirso in the 90 minutes of play! As the opponent was extremely weak, I will not give this win much emphasis ahead of this challenging game against Celta... I expect Celta Vigo - with quite a lot of offensive power - to exploit Espanyol's defensive weaknesses here.. Celta have several offensive strategies/formation in-play. This make defending against them difficult task.. The hosts will be without the injured F. Calero, J. Catala, Exposito, and J. Gragera. As for Celta Vigo, L. De la Torre and Jailson are injured. With the expected lineups – taking the mediocre home advantage into account, of course – the value is definitely with Celta Vigo here! Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based expert analysis, the visitors have a 48.50 % chance of taking all three points. Odds of over 2.30 are available on the betting market!

Last season Celta Vigo finished in 13th place with 41 points in their pocket. However, their number of xPTS was much bigger - 49.97! At the moment they occupy the 11th place in the standings – with a pretty good 18 points to their account.. They have netted the ball 22 times and have conceded 24 goals in La Liga so far this season. However, I want to highlight that their number of xPTS is bigger – 22.97 to be precise! Their number of xG is 23.04 and xGA is 18.33. I'm convinced that that can improve defensively as the season progresses.. Their defenders should avoid risky passes near their own goal.. Furthermore, the Celta midfielders should be more active in defending.. Let's keep in mind that Celta Vigo have not lost any of their last games. In their last two matches they have faced tough opponents – Betis and Barcelona. In their most recent game they faced Barcelona at home – performing well! Indeed, they recorded more goal attempts (15-9), shots on goal (8-4) as well as corner kicks – 5-1. The xG numbers were 2.78-1.72 in Celta's favour. Despite missing one of their best players, the magnificent youngster, Lamine Yamal, 17, Barca were priced around 1.70 to win on the betting market. Before this Celta Vigo faced Betis at Estadio Benito Villamarínin Sevilla and it was a 2-2 draw. Celta were priced close to 4.00 to win the game. Yes, Celta were forced to defend quite a lot and can be happy with a draw.. They were not at their best in this game and can definitely play better.. However, I want to mention that Betis were slightly stronger than I would have expected in this match.. The xG numbers were only 1.52-1.23 in Betis' favour.. In round 12 Celta Vigo defeated Getafe 1-0 at home, generating a strong 2.18 in xG. No, Getafe are not a strong team offensively (xG 15.22) but I liked the way Celta defended – in a very well-organized, disciplined way. Indeed, Celta allowed Getafe only 0.38 in xG. Yes, Getafe's J. Barrocal was sent off in the 65th minute when the score was 1-0. However, I believe Celta Vigo would have had a big chance of winning even without the red card..