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Falcons V.S. Panthers    (lost)

Interesting TNF matchup this evening between 1 bad team and one horrible team.  The Falcons have been an abomination of the field since the season has began.  Last week was quite possibly the most demoralizing experience of their season in the late game collapse.  Panthers on the other side have lost 2 in a row, while making a great effort in last week's game against a divisional foe, the Saints.

I like the Panther's in this matchup at first glance.  They already beat the Falcons earlier in the season as AWAY DOGS, but the market seems to disagree.  Since the line opened at -160 (1.63 EURO) it has dropped significantly to -118 (1.85) across most books in favor of Atlanta.  In addition to the ML dropping, the spread has seen a substantial collapse as well going from -3 to -1.5 or even as low as -1.  Theses movements are suggesting a trap game and luring public bettors who are succumbing to recency-bias towards the Panthers.  Definitely something to be aware of.  

With both teams struggling on Defense we are led to assume this will be a high scoring game with the total looming at 51.5.  That's over 7 TD's.  And with both teams having deplorable redzone defense hitting the OVER is not improbable. 

Starling says: Betting the fluctuating spread on this game is not something I like.  I could see this game coming down to the wire as revenge games usually do.  Beating the same team twice ATS in the same NFL season is RARE.  I do not see the Falcons winning on the road on a short week and do see value in betting on a Carolina to not lose 3 games in a row, especially a divisional short week game against a team they have outperformed.  Also, I like betting against two upsets in a row in the H2H.  Panthers on the Moneyline.
Published: 30-10-2020, 00:45 CET Pick: Panthers - ML
Odds: 1.85 at 5Dimes


Category: NFL football
Date: 29-10-2020
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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