Fc De Paris - Monaco    (won)

I’m playing this early for several reasons. I’ve had great success backing home underdogs not to lose in this home-dominated league earlier in the season – and this one is a must. Away teams win only around 30% of the matches in the league.

Paris FC have 32 points, are solid at home, and have an xG of 1.47 for and 1.24 against. They have relatively few injuries and delivered a strong away performance this weekend with a 1–1 draw against Lorient in a very even match.

Monaco have 49 points, but they’ve been overperforming significantly this season and should have around 10 points fewer. Away from home, they have a relatively weak xG of 1.40 for and as much as 1.65 against. In addition, they are struggling with several injuries and suspensions. They did win 2–1 against Marseille this weekend, but it was a fortunate result – they lost the xG battle 2.13–0.94 and even lost the corner count 8–0, so the result is quite misleading.

The teams met in Monaco in November in a very even match. Historically, Monaco are not a strong away side either, with only 13 wins in their last 30 away matches.

I expect this to be a close game and I’m backing Paris +0.5 handicap early at good odds. I estimate the probability at at least 55%, with value down to at least 1.80.