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Fenerbahce - Zalgiris    (won)

I don't like too much today's offer in EL. Only three games and in all three the home team is heavy favorite. Usually in situation like this, you won't see them all being successful. But if anyone should not slip this time, then it's Fenerbahce. They are coming after road over time loss from Khimki. And you don't want to meet Fener of a loss cause they are very dangerous on such spot.
Game against Khimki was only second EL defeat for Fener in this season. The first one was away from city rival Efes. After Efes they defeated Bayern at home. Didn't cover back then but scored huge 88 pts.
In Turkish league Fener also lost only twice. They lost away from another city rival, Galatasaray and after it destroyed at home Euroleague team Darussafaka with 30+ pts difference. The other loss in the national championship was in fact in their last game.

I feel Fener will bounce back today and they will do it in style. Fener is second best defense in EL (75 pts) and also one of two best in 3-pts percentage.
Zalgiris is ideal opponent at this time cause the guests are in injury problems. This was the main reason why they lost three in a row. They have problems on both, playmaker position as well in the paint.
Leo Westerman missed these mentioned three losses while also other playmaker wasn't too fit. On the center position Jankunas and Kavaliauskas had injury problems. Kavaliauskas missed the mentioned defeats while Jankunas was back in the roster against CSKA and Efes but really without contribution.
Due to this injury problems in the paint, Zalgiris signed in the mean time Thompson who arrived from Burgos (ACB). I know him very well, he was before Spanish ACB in Serbia in Crvena zvezda, earlier also in Bayern. Even in CZ he wasn't anymore too good, while now at 31, I am sure he is everything but something Fenerbahce should be worried about.

Have in mind Fener season ago was the second best team in regular season although lost 9 games. At home they lost even 5 times. This season Fener seems much better, only 2 losses so far and obviously this will be way better record than last time. Also, at home Fener is perfect so far with 8-0. If you think they have had easy schedule, then think twice cause 2 of last 3 home games were against their biggest rivals for the title, CSKA Moscow and Real Madrid.
Also, I like the fact Fener lost season ago at home from Zalgiris. This is one more reason to see Fenerbahce completely focused this time. Obradovic will do everything not to lose again at home from his student Sarunas Jasikevicius.
IMO Fener will open this game strong and will take early lead. It won't be surprising if Zalgiris give up early like they did last time when lost with 20+ at home from Efes. 
Published: 10-01-2019, 16:13 CET Pick: Fenerbahce -7.5
Odds: 1.76 at Pinnacle


Category: European basketball
Date: 10-01-2019
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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