Sweden - Finland in Stockholm on 12th of May.
Finland came into this tournament with a weak team, as they did not convince any sharp NHL players to join this squad. The ones who showed up, are Teräväinen (Chicago), Tolvanen (Seattle and Pärssinen (NY Rangers). Those are three bang-average NHL players. The rest, plays in top European clubs.
Not only have they not managed to gather a strong side, but their warm-up tournament in Czechia was a disaster, losing against Switzerland, Sweden and Czechia, with 6-18 goal difference. Then followed the World Cup debut, against one of the weakest teams in the tournament, Austria. Finland won 1-2, without impressing. The common pattern is a weak Finland side. For Finland, it is France next up.
Sweden enters as a potential gold-medal candidate. Nearly the entire roster consist of NHL players, some of them top-players in the respective teams. Their warm up tournament was good, and the debut against Slovakia was playful and effective. Obviously it was not much of a contest.
Important extra factor: Finland plays against France on the 11th, and will play Sweden on a back-to-back game. Sweden will have 1 extra day of rest, as they face Austria on the 10th.
Conclusion: The two met in Czechia, where Sweden won 6-2 in a dominant performance, and that did not include all of Swedens best players that time. The logical outcome, is that in front of a sold out arena, Sweden will control this Finnish team. There are two matches in this group that matters: Against Canada, and Finland. This is the type of game Sweden will take advantage of, and I expect the odds to drop from here. For that reason, taking this pick a little bit early.
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