Flamengo vs Vitoria    (half-won)

Flamengo have recorded 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats from 20 league matches this season, collecting 39 points and sitting second in the table, while scoring 37 goals. Vitoria, meanwhile, have only 26 points from 21 matches. The bigger gap can be seen in their home and away performances: Vitoria are still winless away from home in the league, with 0 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats, collecting just four points from 11 away matches.

The biggest issue for Vitoria ahead of this game is a sudden defensive crisis. First-choice centre-backs Caca and Luan Candido are both suspended. Since becoming the regular defensive pairing in April, the two have started 21 matches together across all competitions, producing a record of 12 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats. They were also an important part of the defensive unit that helped Vitoria win the Copa do Nordeste. With both unavailable at the same time, head coach Jair Ventura will be forced to use a centre-back partnership that has never started together this season.

The situation is even more difficult because Caca and Luan Candido are not the only defensive absentees. Ruben Ismaelis still recovering, while Camutanga, Edu, Dudu, Natan Mendes and Anderson Pato are also sidelined through injury.

With so few natural centre-backs available, defensive midfielder Caik Goncalves may be forced to drop into central defence alongside 34-year-old veteran Brittes, who only recently joined the club and has made just four appearances so far. Whether Vitoria use two or three centre-backs, this will still be a makeshift back line with very little established chemistry.

That is particularly dangerous against Flamengo because their strongest area is exactly where Vitoria are most vulnerable.

The hosts should still be able to use Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Jorginho and Erick Pulgar to control midfield, with Gonzalo Plata, Samuel Lino and Pedro providing the main attacking threat.

Pedro can directly occupy and physically test Vitoria's improvised centre-back pairing, while Arrascaeta is particularly dangerous at finding space between midfield and defence. If Vitoria are forced to defend very narrowly in order to protect the centre, Samuel Lino and Plata should receive more one-on-one opportunities from wide areas.

Flamengo's own squad situation has improved considerably. Plata has recovered from his knee tendon problem, Lucas Paqueta is back from a thigh injury, and Leo Ortiz is once again available to start. The main absentees are currently Luiz Araujo, who has a left-knee injury, and the suspended Nicolas de la Cruz. Overall, Flamengo have a much healthier and deeper squad than their opponents.

There is also a clear difference in physical preparation.

Flamengo have not played a competitive match since their 1-1 draw with Internacional on July 29, giving Leonardo Jardim almost 10 days to work with a nearly complete squad.

Vitoria, in contrast, only played in the Copa do Brasil on Thursday. Although they produced an impressive 4-0 victory over Athletico Paranaense to reach the quarter-finals, they managed only two training sessions between that cup match and this trip to Rio de Janeiro.

Motivation should not be an issue for Flamengo either. They currently sit second with 39 points, while leaders Palmeiras are already on 47. Flamengo have a game in hand, but the title race means home matches against lower-table opposition are games they simply cannot afford to drop points in.

There is also another important fixture coming on Wednesday, when Flamengo face Cruzeiro in the Copa Libertadores knockout stage. Jardim will want his team to rebuild momentum and confidence before that major continental match.

There is also a psychological element that should not be ignored.

It was Vitoria who eliminated Flamengo from this year's Copa do Brasil. Flamengo won the first leg 2-1 at the Maracana, but then lost 0-2 away from home and were knocked out 3-2 on aggregate.

Now the two sides meet again at the Maracana, and with Jardim and Flamengo having faced pressure recently, there should be no shortage of motivation for revenge.

Vitoria's most realistic approach will be to defend in a compact block, with players such as Baralhas and Martinezprotecting central areas before looking for counter-attacking opportunities through Matheuzinho and Rene.

However, that strategy only works if their defence can withstand long periods of Flamengo pressure.

With Caca and Luan Candido both unavailable and a defensive midfielder potentially being forced to play at centre-back, Vitoria's defensive structure looks extremely fragile. If Flamengo score early and force the visitors to push higher up the pitch, the spaces behind this makeshift back line should become even larger.

Pick: Flamengo -1.75