France is the favorite in its World Cup quarterfinal match against Morocco, but according to the French and Moroccan press, it is by no means expected to be an easy game. The French defeated Sweden 3–0, then edged out Paraguay 1–0. Morocco, on the other hand, advanced on penalty kicks against the Netherlands, then secured a convincing 3–0 victory over Canada.
Injuries could be a major factor for both teams. For the French national team, Aurélien Tchouaméni’s availability is highly questionable: according to the French newspaper L’Équipe, the Real Madrid midfielder is struggling with an adductor injury, and the coaching staff is essentially racing against the clock to get him ready to play. His absence would be a particularly significant loss, given the need for midfield balance and the challenge of defending against Morocco’s counterattacks.
For Morocco, there is uncertainty surrounding the status of Ismaël Saibari and Chadi Riad. Saibari left the field due to injury in the first half of the match against Canada. He plays a key role in Morocco’s offense, so his absence would reduce the quality of the team’s ball movement and attacking transitions. The squad had already lost Abde Ezzalzouli and Nayef Aguerde before the tournament began.
In the Canada–Morocco match, according to one xG data source, Canada generated 0.91 xG and Morocco generated 0.90 xG. Canada outshot Morocco 10–5 and had 11 corner kicks to Morocco’s 1. Morocco thus scored three goals from roughly 0.9 xG, which is an exceptionally high conversion rate, and the 0–3 score suggests a much more one-sided match than the quality of chances would suggest.
The first half tells an even clearer story:
xG: Canada 0.42–0.02 Morocco
shots: 4–1
corners: 5–0
touches inside the box: 13–1
big chances: Canada 1, Morocco 0
The French forwards are in such great form that I can't pass up this opportunity. I'm expecting France to win.