Real vs Arsenal - Yet Another Remontada?

One of the biggest games in the 2025 UEFA Champions League is played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu today. The roof will be closed to make the atmosphere as intense as possible. Let's remember that Real Madrid have lifted the trophy a whopping 15 times – even winning the league 3 times in a row - 2016-2018!  They won it last year as well, beating a German team, Dortmund, in the final – despite not being even close to their best.. There is something in the combo Real Madrid+Champions League that can't be fully explained even with the most advanced numbers/ statistics. However, there is, of course, no “magic” involved. First of all, this competition seems to be the most motivating for the Real players. Furthermore, the iconic coach Ancelotti is also at his best in tough situations - in the biggest of games. He has won the English  Premier League, the La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga though. These are the top-5 European Leagues. He is surely not among the best coaches in the world in terms of tactical skills but knows how to deal with the massive egos many top-footballers have.. Carlo seems to have "nerves of steel". He and many of Real's players are true winners – take for example K. Mbappe, who won the World Cup with France in 2018. Mbappe also netted the ball 3 times against Argentina in the World cup 2022. The iconic Croatian midfielder L. Modric is not a regular starter anymore but has won numerous trophies with “Los Blancos” and is an important member of the team. There are, of course, many other excellent players in the Real squad. Vini Jr. , the controversial Brazilian striker, came close to winning the Ballon d'or last year.. J. Bellingham only joined the for this season but he, too, can perform when it matters.. In the EURO 2024 he was very important for England, despite looking somewhat fatigued at times. England lost the final to Spain 1-2. When push comes to shove these players are often able to improve – or at least not crumble under pressure.

Yes, Real will be without Camavinga, Carvajal, Eder Militao, Lunin and Mendy. However, Arsenal's absences are much worse – Calafiori, Gabriel, Gabriel Jesus, Havertz, Jorginho and Tomiyasu are out. Arsenal's most important player, B. Saka recently returned from injury and is not at his best yet. As expected,  Polish defender Kiwior was a hazard in the first leg in London last week.. Today he will - most probably - be in even bigger trouble.. Yes, we all know Arsenal won the first leg 3-0. They deserved to win – recording three more total shots than Real. They also generated more in expected goals (xG) – 1.73-0.63 to be precise. They performed better than expected - it was one of their best games this season. D. Rice scored two stunning free kick goals – with a pretty low xG.. However, Real, too, had their chances! At home, in front of their loud and demanding fans, Real trailing 0-3 on aggregate will have no other option than to go “all in”. Defensively, Arsenal are one of the best teams on the planet but Real are even bigger favourites to win (90 minutes) than the bookies believe. Arsenal surely will not want to "park the bus" ie. defend with 10 or even all 11 men but Real will surely force them into this. Odds of around 1.75 on the home win are widely available on the betting market. Talking of remontadas (Spanish for a great comeback), last season Joselu scored in the 88th and 90th+1 minute against Bayern at home in the semi-final second leg! In 2022, in the second leg, Rodrygo scored in the 90th and 90+1 minutes against Manchester City at the Bernabéu, forcing an overtime/ "extra match". Benzema scored the winning 6-5 on aggregate goal in extra time. On the road Real have very often been a disappointment – but have still got the job done, boosted by their extremely enthusiastic fans. Real have an only 16% chance of making yet another remontada – eliminating Arsenal, who have never won the Champions League. They came closest in the 2005-2006 season, losing the final to Barcelona 2-1..

 In their most recent game the Arsenal manager, M. Arteta, did some squad rotation, as expected. It was a 1-1 draw with Brentford at home. Arsenal generated 0.79 in xG - defending quite well as a team. However, the lack of an actual striker became evident – once again.. Brentford managed 0.55 in xG. Real beat Alaves 1-0 on the road a few days ago, despite Mbappe being sent off in the 38th minute. It was a totally outrageous tackle! Alaves' M. Sanchez, too, received a red card in the 70th minute though.  It was not - by any means -  a flashy performance from Real.. However, they have the world-class individuals and mentality to win games – despite unarguably lacking a true structure in their game..

To sum up, Real to win is the professional bettor's choice here.