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Garin - Polmans    (won)

ATP Roland Garros

What a joke of odds there is here, this is really a solid pick with plenty of value in my eyes. I was actually expecting something similar as Garin is very overrated by bookies, while the guys coming from qualies (who are seen as Challenger players) are mistreated at GS level. The fact is that nowadays the level of a top-150 guy is not far from that of a top-50, generally speaking. I think Garin has been the player with the most ups and downs since the restart, his level sways from one set to another and obviously he has been playing battles most of the time. Christian has never won in straight sets at GS level since the restart, he had two 5-setters at the US Open and here won a 4-setter against almost-retired Kohlschreiber. Polmans plays well on clay and is a grinder fighting on every point, I expect this to be a not comfortable matchup for fickle Garin. I'm even thinking this might be a 5-setter, you know I also have to put a chip on Polmans ML at 8.00+). The Aussie made a nice upset in R1 as he beat Humbert, it was even an easy win. Polmans played a very solid match on both wings and a lot of his points came from the longer rallies, which is good in view of this call. For me it will be a balanced and physical match, just the opposite of what the odds suggest. Polmans to win a set as main pick and hoping for another upset, which is not at all impossible against Garin.

Published: 30-09-2020, 23:38 CET Pick: Polmans +2.5 Sets
Odds: 2.23 at Pinnacle


Category: ATP tennis
Date: 01-10-2020
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)




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