Group A is extremely tight. Spain are top of the group with two wins, but they haven’t secured qualification yet, although they could still advance to the Main Round even with a defeat. That means all teams still have a chance to qualify.
There is a scenario where, by the time the Germany–Spain match kicks off, Spain could already be qualified. At 18:00 Austria play Serbia, and if Austria win, Spain would already be through. If Serbia win and Spain then lose by three or more goals, Spain would be eliminated — that’s the only way they could go out.
In any case, it’s clear that Spain control their own destiny: if they win, draw, or lose by fewer than three goals, the result of the other match won’t matter.
Given this situation, I don’t think it will have a big impact on match preparation. Spain will be focused on their own game and will go out to win, but it could happen that if they are already qualified, the coach gives more minutes to less regular players, which could benefit Germany.
Spain have surprised me so far. I feel they’ve achieved better results than expected based on their overall play and squad quality. If we look purely at the results against Serbia and Austria, Spain should beat Germany, who had worse results against those same opponents. Still, I believe Germany have a better team than Spain, and they absolutely need to win to qualify (a draw would only be enough if Austria beat Serbia). They are in a very delicate situation, and going out this early would be a major disappointment for them — and a surprise for many, myself included.
Spain played a good match against Austria and won by five goals. I wouldn’t say they played badly at all, but their goalkeeper, Sergey Hernández, was the key figure — without his performance the game would have been much tighter.
Both teams have played very close matches against each other in recent years, and I don’t expect anything very different today. My final read of this group is that Austria will beat Serbia and Spain will start their match already qualified. Added to the fact that Germany basically must win (or at least draw in that scenario), this makes me think Germany will win the game or at least manage to cover their team goals line.
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