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Giants - Reds    (lost)

Another over for the Reds Team total. 

Reds scored seven runs on 13 hits so they were offensively good once again. Little less confident than last nights bet but still i think this line should be 4,0 and here is why. Blach has a 4,20 ERA but pitched better than that. At home he has been a bit worse though. He keeps the ball in the park with a 0,42 HR/9 but he gets hit at home. He is coming from a bad outing in Philly where he allowed 5 runs.

Blach is LHP and the Reds are pretty decent against LHP, ranked 8th in advanced stats is not bad at all, better than teams such as Yankees and the Astros.
Also, an important thing and that many people miss is Fielding play. Playing good 'D is important and the Giants are ranked 30th (!), deadlast indeed. 

Also, the Giants bullpen is very average this season, ranked 21th. In the last 14 days the Giants relievers have combined a 5.94 ERA and last night against the Reds the Giants bullpen had a 7.04 ERA ( Reds scored 3 runs in the last inning )

The Reds have a terrible 14-28 record. They have a good offense, they are just not pitching,  even their supposed ACE Bailey is all over the place. They fired manager Bryan Price after their terrible start and are playing well recently. They won four from their last 5 games, scored 27 runs in those games. They swept the Dodgers in LA.

Average starter on the mound, strugling bullpen, a shakey Giants defence and a decent team hitting LHP.

This line is definetely worth a play.

Published: 15-05-2018, 13:16 CET Pick: Reds Over 3.5
Odds: 1.75 at Pinnacle


Category: MLB baseball
Date: 16-05-2018
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)




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