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A difficult match between two of the weakest national teams in the world, but I'm playing this one for several reasons. There's been some smart money on this outcome, I've got an external tip from a good contact, and my own analysis also supports the bet.
Gibraltar is not used to being the favorite and controlling matches. They have only scored goals in 2 of their last 11 matches, and even against weak nations like Liechtenstein and San Marino they have had an xG of around 0.50. Several players are also out for this match, including the player who scored one of the goals in the two matches where Gibraltar actually found the back of the net.
I'm not exactly an expert on the British Virgin Islands, but their results have certainly been on the rise recently. They are four games without a loss, and also lost only 1–0 to quite good Jamaica (number 71 in the FIFA rankings).
Two weak team meet here, and I think the match will be more even than the odds suggest. That's why I'm playing British Virgin Islands +1.5 handicap.
Value all the way down to 1.72.
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