Hammarby are made favorites here, which I completely agree with, but I thought they would be greater favrorites, hence I see a good value position by taking the Swedes.
Hammarby kept a tight match plan in Norway, playing on natural grass is not their favorite aspect, so they were a bit more conservative. After the match, Roseborg were disappointed as they dominated the match in the creation department, and now the match in Stockholm will see a different challenge. Looking at Hammarby at home this season, they are 8-1-1 and 20:7 goal difference. They will be able to move the ball quicker, play their combinations, and their players are scouted specifically for this style of play.
Even if Rosenborg are more used to artificial turf than the average European team, they will also not fancy the conditions. The atmosphere acustic in this stadium is very hostile, with fans close to the pitch, and the support will be monumental for Roseborg to deal with. Rosenborg themselves are difficult to deal with at home, they are actually undefeated, but as Travelers their weakness is exposed (3-4-2, and -7 goal difference). That is not an away record you bring to Sweden with confidence.
Conclusion: Swedish teams have enjoyed good victories in Europe this season, and as I said above, not many teams can cope with Hammarby in their stadium. I feel good about the straight win.
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