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Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz    (lost)

Theoretically this is the perfect opportunity to use live betting as we have no clue about Dominick Cruz and the shape he's in after the long layoff. It will be pretty easy to see if Cruz is sharp and in good shape early on in the fight so i might add on Cruz in play if he looks good but i want to have a small bet on him pre fight as well. Personally, i took Cruz two weeks ago or so with a +210 but i think his current price still holds some value. The thing is...either we have one of the biggest value bets in 2020 or just a random bet without much value. It depends on Cruz. If Cruz shows up and looks like he did 3-4 years ago, he's probably a clear favorite and will make it look easy as f*** to beat Cejudo who is just a really good matchup for him. Cejudo is a life long wrestler, he's a former Olympian Gold Medalist and he's a great athlete but in the end MMA or boxing is about styles make fights and this is a great stylistic matchup for Cruz. I have a hard time to see Cejudo holding Cruz down, Cruz has great TDD and his get up game is pretty strong. In the standup i do not see Cruz losing a striking battle against Cejudo. There are levels in MMA striking and Cejudo is probably one or two classes below Cruz. I don't even think Cejudo is the better MMA grappler. He's the better wrestler but this ain't wrestling, in terms of MMA grappling i think Cruz has a better positional awareness, better scrambling and his get up game and TDD are superb like i already wrote. It's all about Cruz. If he can keep it together and put on another performance like he did in 2016 against TJ after another long layoff i absolutely can see him outclassing Cejudo from start to finish. If he'll look old and past it, he still might have a chance if Cejudo fights like he usually fights. Prime Dominick Cruz should be a 75-80% favorite here. So i have no problem to bet him at the current lines. I can only recommend watching this and if Cruz looks sharp and great early on, unload on him and his odds, pull the damn trigger and max bet him. He's probably a 1.30 after Round 2.
Published: 05-05-2020, 20:06 CET Pick: Dominick Cruz
Odds: 2.88 at Pinnacle


Category: MMA
Date: 09-05-2020
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 2 (tipster's average: 4)




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