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Houston - Chicago    (won)

Had much better odds in the morning, but this is for sure still worth a play, and here is why.

The Sox face RHP Blanco, who owns an ERA of 7.71. The thing is that he barely pitched better than his high ERA shows. Indeed, he has a terrible 6.94 FIP.

The hard-throwing right-hander lost velocity over the years for sure. In 2022, his Four-Seam velocity was 98 MPH (!). This year, 95.6; at the highest level, this can make a world of difference. He throws everything fast anyway, basically a hard four-seamer, change, slider, and a curve so now and then.

Blanco allowed at least 3 runs in each outing this season (5 games), and he faced this Sox team in Chicago as he got whooped for 5 runs. Even in the minors, he has been all over the place with an ERA of 5.18 ERA/5.38 FIP.

So, for Chicago to score a bunch early on, the 2.5 line for plus money is worth investing in.


Published: 02-09-2026, 00:17 CET Pick: Chicago over 2.5 first half (first 5 innings)
Odds: 2.1 at Pinnacle


Category: MLB baseball
Date: 02-09-2026
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)



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