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Hurkacz - Millman    (won)

ATP Madrid

There are players who are too mistreated when playing on their worst surface, Millman is one of those about clay. I disagree as I actually see too high prices on him, even when not playing clay-court specialists like in this spot. I don't much like Hubi on clay, here he is still helped by altitude conditions (with his serve), but I really wouldn't say he is priced correctly as a clear favourite (IMO 50/50 or it's not far off). Millman is used to fighting hard his way in any playing condition, also John hasn't been that bad in his current clay season as it's okay if he loses to top clay-courters Djere and Ruud (maybe I should also mention Garin). Hurkacz has only played one clay tournament so far (Monte Carlo) and was far from his best or Miami version, surviving with luck to beat poor Fabbiano and losing to Evans badly (struggling physically). This pair has never met on clay, but Millman leads 3-0 on hard, I mean this last thing alone is enough to justify my value pick.


Published: 03-05-2021, 19:35 CET Pick: Millman
Odds: 3.1 at bwin


Category: ATP tennis
Date: 04-05-2021
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 9 (tipster's average: 9)




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