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Ivo Karlovic - Dominic Thiem    (won)

Maybe I am insane but I am going with the bet that Karlovic will not play a tie-break in 1st set here :D
I mean it just seems as a good spot for this bet. It is a slow surface so Ivo should not have an easy job on serve against a world class returner like Dominic. 
Ivo in 3 matches here was not perfect on his serve , Ebden and Coric took 1 break each , and he gave out a lot of bp's to Ebden and some to Gunneswaran. 
But also he had a lot of bp chances himself and took at least a break in every match. 
Only 1 out of 3 first sets went over in this tournament.
Dominic Thiem as I said is a great returner , but also struggles with his serve here. As I said the surface is slower , sometimes wind gets in the way , you make 1 or 2 double faults in a game and you are most probably facing a break.
Also what is good for this bet is that Ivo when meeting similar opponents to Thiem (great returners , clay specialists etc..) hasn't had much tie-breaks.
Against Ferrer this year he lost straight sets without a tb , against Coric and Nishikori first set was under 12,5. Against Bautista in Barcelona(clay) first set was over but breaks later...
Just seems to me as this is one of those opponents where Karlovic should be less than 50% to play a tie-break. 
Published: 13-03-2019, 22:29 CET Pick: Under 12,5 first set
Odds: 1.8 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: ATP tennis
Date: 14-03-2019
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 8 (tipster's average: 10)



Heisenbergabq 13-03-2019, 23:03
Little extra: Dominic played 16 matches on hard vs big servers and he has negative score against most of them..Only against Querrey he has 2-1 lead..Raonic 0-2Isner 1-1,Anderson 2-7. It is quite possible to go under even with Ivo`s break,consiedering Austrian`s form at the moment.For me big servers ain`t his favourite match-up cause he needs rhytm in order to develop his game style...All in all GL sir :))

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