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J. Isner - M. Ebden    (lost)

ATP Newport

There is lot of IF's and BUT's in this match and with my preview but I think this will be interesting :)

I think current situation dont justify these 1.30 odds for Big John.. I mean I would understand it if Isner would be top form and 100% healthy against current Ebden who seems to me again to be "in form" here. Still I would not in that case bet Isner of course with 1.30.

I think I saw enough from Isner against Majchrzak, although not whole match. it did not look that good. Dont get me wrong, I know the polish player is talented (if Im correct he has been called the Polish Djokovic, or something like that) but I really cant rate him the level of Ebden on grass, no where near. Still Isner gave him 5 bp's which the polish player could not convert. Biggest problem I see was Isner's return. I mean he got 2 bp's in whole match!! and of course use both of them. Even in 1st serve the polish player won amazing 91% of points and Big John only 75%. That is quit crazy numbers to me, IF isner was healthy.

Im not saying Isner will retire here, BUT I give also chances for that in case his serve is not working and he dont geel good, or maybe losing 1st set in tie-break and has no chances on return and he dont believe his chances and feels bad etc etc.. Still I think Matthew can be a really tricky player in these conditions on return, and I have a feeling he will use his chances if and when he gets breakpoint chances.

Of course Isner has been "owning" the h2h with 4-1, but most important thing for me is to notice that Ebden actually won 2018 in GS-level at fast hard in AO with 3-1 result. That is quit impressive to me when we know how "hard nut" John is usually in GS-level in the early stages. Going for the so called FULL VALUE here!
Published: 18-07-2019, 23:45 CET Pick: Ebden
Odds: 3.53 at Pinnacle

Category: ATP tennis
Date: 19-07-2019
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 6 (tipster's average: 8)

TheGame 18-07-2019, 23:59
Backing this with high stakes...you only live once..Ebden looked sublime in his first match against Schnur, especially in the first set in which he played perfect. I didnt watch his match against Kudla but the result looks good. Furthermore i hope people put a big bet on the very underarrated Tig today against Sevastova like i did, i was thinking about posting but whenever i post my ideas on here i jinx it, so i didnt, in fact i probably did jinx this bet now when i wrote about it.
Heisenbergabq 19-07-2019, 00:14
I was going to write this pick.Isner looked problematic in last match. Kamil gifted him 2 breaks with 2 DF in each followed by unforced error. On return Isner looked half-dead and in relies tired and uncontroled with his shots. He was lucky to win honeslty. I know Edben had tough first part of season but he looks solid so far here and this odd is value for sure. I think if he menage to control his demons ( double faults ) he has very decent chance.
TheGame 19-07-2019, 00:24
Ofc i want to help people in here win money. I can share info about Cristian - Rybakina, in which the latter played just as good as the result states, she did boss every point and played with high confidence inspite that she had the whole crowd cheering for the romanian women. I havnt watched Kuzmova, anybody saw her last match? Also Tig hurt her hand in a fall in the latter stages of the match against Sevastova, but she played like she did before in the match so i guess it wasnt serious, but you never know, she withdrew from her doubles match later in the evening, maybe just precaution? If she is 100% she will get her chances against Pliskova, i havnt watched the czech woman but she is very up and down, my advice will be for us to wait and bet live and see how things stand for Tig. This Romanian woman is beautiful to watch in her best moments playing tennis!
Finnishflash 19-07-2019, 00:31
Im not giving any % valuation to this bet, but I think we have pretty good chances tomorrow..:) Biggest worrie is if we see tomorrow in flashscore that Isner has gave walkover prematch lol. Also I took Ebden to win set @1.83 which seems gift cause its won at bet365 no matter if Isner retires some point compared to +1,5 sets. GL lads!
TheGame 19-07-2019, 00:39
Good luck Flash, thanks for posting this one! Cheers.
TheGame 19-07-2019, 19:44
Also: Small stakes on 2-0 Ebden for me @6.50! Good luck to FF, Heisenberg and me! Good luck to us!
FinnishFlash 19-07-2019, 21:15
Set @1.83 check. Seriously I dont know how Isner can win this IF he dont win 7-6, 7-6 next two which would be kinda typical.. Ebden will get bp chances surely, and I hope the Big Man dont serve like monster in those.
Heisenbergabq 19-07-2019, 21:25
Jinxed it :)) i was late for begining and i turned on stream now,Isner served well so far and ofcource got break thanks to Ebden
Finnishflash 19-07-2019, 21:29
Yea ofc he is playing now better In 2nd but In 1st zero bp`s.. He barely moved on return. Now I hope his "stamina" wont Last full 3 sets.
Finnishflash 19-07-2019, 21:32
Damn now this f**ker is serving like a beast. Totally different than 1st set. Ebden has to play some amazing game In 3rd to break the guy.
Heisenbergabq 19-07-2019, 21:34
Interesting fact is both Kamil and Ebden gave away their serve games with UE and silly moves.. i hope he won`t do that in 3rd,it would be just too much
Heisenbergabq 19-07-2019, 21:47
I am afraid if this goes to TB (with curent serving of John) we are doomed
FinnishFlash 19-07-2019, 21:53
The aces were 6-5 in 1st to Ebden`s favour and now this f***ker has already 16 aces.. Guy is a faker!
Heisenbergabq 19-07-2019, 21:58
TheGame 19-07-2019, 22:03
Haha pathetic lil matt
TheGame 19-07-2019, 22:05
Matt need to hold big johns hand, 20 aces
TheGame 19-07-2019, 22:09
Maybe if long big johnny makes 4 df in a row, matt might break back?
TheGame 19-07-2019, 22:18
Can i have these money back cause i dont didnt want to bet this one please?
Heisenbergabq 19-07-2019, 22:21
No regrets now,value was there for sure. John impoved 2nd and 3rd while Ebden was in downfall. That`s tennis.
TheGame 19-07-2019, 22:23
Haha ok.
FCpicks 19-07-2019, 23:18
Thanks for the pick, seeing everyone here was on Ebden I took him +1.5 sets although I don`t like tennis and can`t complain actually. Credits to all of you tennis pundits!

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