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Jabeur V.S. Sakkari    (won)

I must go Greek on this one.  While Jabuer's performance over the pandemic ridden tour season is undeniably one of the best, if not the best of her career it is a tall task for her to overcome in this QF matchup.  A couple of notes on Ons... This year she has reached 4 QF's and has lost all 4.  Careerwise she is 3 for 7 in QF matchups.  On the otherside of the court Maria is 8/7 in QF matchups (5-2 on hardcourts).
  
Ons holds the H2H title between the two on regulated tour matches 1-0.  That match was on clay.  But most importantly when I look at this matchup I truly think that the linesmakers are incorrect and I expect the market to move this line in Maria's favor by match time.  Sakkari played an amazing match against Svitolina, she basically destroyed her and it was actually much worse than the scoreline indicated.  She basically was a Winner hitting machine (34 to be exact).  Oh, and by the way, Elina played pretty well, she just got beat.  Plain and simple.  Ons had a fantastic first match, pretty much destroying Strycova (who I think is much better than her ranking) on her home soil but a questionable second match, holding only 50% of her service games, against fluke Grand Slam winner Osta-stanko.  Ons is playing in decline while Sakkari is in stride.

Still have doubts? 
Let's break it down:

Jabeur
Avg. Opponent Rank - 40.5 (Decrease in match 2 by 7 rank points)
Avg. 1st serve in - 52.5% (Decrease in match 2 by 5%)
Avg. Service points won - 61% (Decrease in match 2 by 14%)
Avg. return points won - 56.5% (Increase in match 2 by 5%)
Avg. TOT points won - 58% (Decrease in match 2 by 4%)
Avg. BP's faced to saved rate - 5/2 (Decrease in match 2 29% saved)
Avg. BP's caused to conversion rate - 9/6 (Decrease in match 2 64% converted)
Avg. Ace to DF: 3.5/2.5 (Decrease in match [6/5])
Total Increases to Decreases of performance stat category in 2 match progression: 1/7
Sakkari
Avg. Opponent Rank - 36.5 (Increase in match 2 by 63 rank points)
Avg. 1st serve in - 53% (Increase in match 2)
Avg. Service points won - 67% (Consistent in both matches)
Avg. return points won - 52% (Consistent in both matches)
Avg. TOT points won - 59% (Consistent in both matches)
Avg. BP's faced  to saved rate - 5/3.5 (Decrease in second match 33% saved [1/3])
Avg. BP's caused to conversion rate - 9/4.5 (Increase in second match 56% won [5/9])
Avg. Ace to DF: 4.5/3.5 (Increase in match two [6/4])
Total Increases to Decreases of performance stat category in 2 match progression: 4/1

Starling Says: Go with the Greek, Ons and pressure don't get along well.  While she may be skilled, tennis is a game of the mind more so than the body.  

Published: 23-10-2020, 10:10 CET Pick: Maria Sakkari
Odds: 2.04 at Pinnacle


Category: WTA tennis
Date: 23-10-2020
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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