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Jonava v Kauno Zalgiris    (lost)

Medium - Jonava SW/-0.5 @ 1.72 at home to Kauno Zalgiris, Lithuania A Lyga. 11am kick-off 17/03. 

Both Kaunas based sides meet tomorrow in a local derby and I am pretty confident that Jonava get their first win of the season. 

Jonava have only taken two points from nine available so far but I don't think that is a fair reflection of their quality. There's more than meets the eye with their results to date with their first game against Palanga (1-1 draw) being played in extremely cold temperatures of around -15 degrees on a frozen solid surface. They then played their first 'home' game against Atlantas (another 1-1 draw) but in actual fact the game wasn't in Kaunas it was indoor in Marijampole. Their last fixture was a 4-2 loss away to Suduva which was a fair outcome however not many teams score twice away at the champions - feasibly they should have somewhere between four and seven points, not two.

I think Jonava have been a bit unlucky with their opening games and would have more than likely beaten Palanga on a better surface. Would also say that they would have been significantly more likely to get a win against Atlantas had the game been in Kaunas. They return home tomorrow and the club are putting on additional entertainment and such, looks like they are trying to drum up a bit of support and that should be a help. Are better for their off-season signings and have retained main striker Stonkus who has two goals in three games, reckon he will be back amongst the goals in this game. 

Kauno still look the weakest in the league on paper in my opinion but their previously shambolic defence has been somewhat sorted out by new manager Mindaugas Cepas. That being said their league position is also a false one for now. They were awarded their opening game of the season 3-0 due to Zalgiris fielding an ineligible player (Oyarzun). They lost that game 2-0 and if Zalgiris hadn't eased off in the final stages it could easily have gone three or four. They then went down 4-1 at home to Trakai which in fairness may have been down to the snow covered pitch however they threw in the towel in the latter stages and Trakai punished them. Their latest game was a 1-0 win away at Atlantas. They held their own in the early stages and stole a goal however that woke the hosts up who then proceeded to dominate but couldn't find a way through - a lucky away win. 

Jonava have a good record historically in this fixture with Kauno only beating them once in seven attempts at home. I think the league positions combined with some good/bad luck on respective sides have created a bit of a false idea of where these two are at. Jonava have better quality in their side and back on their home patch they should take all three points despite the freezing temperatures. 

GL 

Published: 16-03-2018, 23:19 CET Pick: 1
Odds: 1.72 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: Lithuanian football
Date: 17-03-2018
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 6 (tipster's average: 6)




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