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Kauno Zalgiris v Jonava    (half-lost)

Medium - Kauno Zalgiris -0.25 @ 1.99 (SBO) at home to Jonava. Lithuania A Lyga. 


Don’t understand the raise on the odds of home win here so have to oppose, I had opening prices relatively fair so -0.25 a very generous line for me. 


Kauno have won the three meetings between the sides this season with Jonava failing to score in all of them (1-0, 1-0 and 2-0 wins). The latest result was in June at Jonava where Kauno played over 50 minutes with 10 men but still held out comfortably to win the match. 


The home side were eliminated from the cup at the weekend to Zalgiris (as expected) so now their hopes on qualifying for Europe hinge on whether they can finish 3rd or not. They currently sit 5 points off the pace in 5th so a win here is imperative if they are to make any inroads on reaching the 3rd spot. Really impressed with how organised they are, Cepas has them will drilled and they give very little away against the poorer sides in the league. Not the biggest goal scoring side by any means but Brazilian striker João Figueiredo should get real joy against one of the poorest defences in the league. 


Jonava have had an awful season after their highest ever finish (4th) last year. They deserve their current league position in last place and looking at their 5 remaining fixtures it’s hard to see how they can climb off the bottom. Defending has been their main issue and I’ve watched them concede so many sloppy goals over the last few months, hard to see how it changes now especially with summer arrival Armanavičius missing today. They’ve signed a Brazilian striker on Thuique who’s hit the ground running with 2 goals in 3 games but he’s had the luxury of playing the other two poor sides (Atlantas and Palanga) so far so I think he finds it tougher here. A quick glance at form makes it seem like they are on the up but it will take more than scraping a few points against poor sides to make me think they have improved any. 


Weather is fine, perfect conditions for football in Kaunas so I see no reason why the odds on the home side have risen significantly in the last few hours. 


GL

Published: 19-09-2018, 14:13 CET Pick: Kauno Zalgiris -0.25
Odds: 1.99 at SBOBET


Category: Lithuanian football
Date: 19-09-2018
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 6 (tipster's average: 6)




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