Last week we already bet against Qatar by taking Oman +0.25 on the handicap, and the final result was 0-0.
https://www.betrush.com/pick,Oman___Catar,243554.html
Let’s remember that in this 3-team group, the outcomes are: direct qualification to the World Cup for the 1st place, a chance to continue through another group stage for the 2nd place, and elimination for the 3rd place (depending on whether they finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd in this group). After that match, Oman lost 2-1 against UAE, so the standings look like this:
- UAE win by 2 or more goals, they finish first in the group and Oman second, eliminating Qatar.
- UAE win by 1 goal, UAE finish first, and Qatar and Oman are tied on 1 point with the same goal difference. Their head-to-head match ended 0-0, so everything would be tied. I don’t know what would happen in that case.
- Qatar win, they finish first and UAE second, eliminating Oman.
- If they draw, UAE finish first and Qatar still have a chance to qualify in the next phase.
Considering that this 3-team group seems designed for Qatar to qualify—since all matches are played in Qatar and they were given three extra days of rest compared to their opponent—it’s hard for me to imagine the Qatari petrodollars being left out. In other words, if UAE go ahead (which I find very likely), I wouldn’t rule out some “suitcase” money moving around so that either the match ends in a draw or at least the goal difference does not increase. I doubt this kind of deal would happen before the match starts, because a loss for UAE would force them to keep fighting in the next qualifying phase with all the risks that implies. So I rule out the game being fixed from the start unless it is to aim for a draw, which would at least guarantee Qatar’s qualification as second.
From a sporting perspective, for me UAE are the favourite team. I already made it clear in last week’s recommendation that Qatar are not at their best and have dropped points in matches where they were heavy favourites. Since Lopetegui arrived in May, the team has shown no improvement at all. Meanwhile, UAE are in very good form. Since Romanian coach Cosmin Olăroiu took charge, the team has not lost: two draws in his first two matches (against Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan), and then four wins—three in friendlies against Lecce, Syria, and Bahrain, and the last one a 2-1 win against Oman (Oman’s goal was an own goal after the ball deflected off a home player).
Less than a year ago, these two teams drew 1-1 in the Gulf Cup. Shortly before that, in the third phase of World Cup qualifying, where both teams failed to secure direct qualification,they faced each other twice, both times with wins for UAE: 5-0 and 1-3.
So we should expect a close match, where in my opinion UAE are the favourite, but given the circumstances and the possibility of eliminating such an influential nation as Qatar from the World Cup, a draw is a very realistic outcome.
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