I've played this bet before on Arsenal, including against Olympiakos, and when I've studied the odds and statistics here, there's little doubt that it should be value again. The bet is mainly built on Arsenal's strong defensive statistics. I've heard Arsenal fans call it "the best defense in the world", and that's probably not far from the truth.

As always - let's take a look at the numbers.
In their last 10 games, Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 9 of them. Perhaps the most impressive thing is when you look at xG: in only 2 of the last 9 games has the opposing team created more than 1 in xG, and they've faced strong teams like Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle.

Fulham are often a better team than many people think, but I don't think they've looked particularly good offensively so far. They have played 7 games and scored 0 or 1 goal in all of them – except for one game with a very good result against Brentford. They also have a low xG, and there is some uncertainty around the striker position and injuries.

What may speak against the game is that Arsenal have several players on international duty, there is uncertainty around Ødegaard, and the team will play the Champions League on Tuesday. Nevertheless, I think the odds will fall, and therefore choose to play early.

The bet: 1X2 (Arsenal) and Both Teams to Score (NO)
I consider the chance to be about 42% and think the odds is value down to around 2.40.

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