Leeds - Brentford    (void)

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I tipped Leeds vs Crystal Palace, and the odds dropped sharply on Leeds before kickoff. Leeds were the better team in the first half, but a red card just before halftime will probably make things much tougher for that pick. I’m choosing to play this one early as well, since I believe the odds could drop quickly here.

Leeds have 31 points, while Brentford have 48. However, if we look at the underlying numbers, I still think Leeds should be slight favorites here. At home, Leeds have an xG of 1.53 for and 1.30 against, while Brentford away average 1.19 for and 1.53 against.

Leeds have only one win in their last six matches, but I think they’ve actually looked good and haven’t been rewarded for their performances. A couple of examples are Leeds – Sunderland 0–1 (xG 1.96–0.64) and Leeds – City 0–1 (xG 1.34–1.69). Against City, Leeds also won both the corner and shot statistics, which very few teams manage to do.

The odds market also shows confidence in Leeds, for example by making them favorites away against Crystal Palace.

Brentford have had good results recently, but they’ve also had a bit of luck. They are unbeaten in their last five away games, but they have lost the xG battle in all of them except against Burnley.

The teams met in December, in a match that ended 1–1. Leeds clearly won the xG battle 1.77–0.88 and the shot count 18–7, despite playing away.

These are two fairly even teams, but with home advantage I believe Leeds should be the favorites here. I’m playing Leeds draw no bet, playable down to at least 1.80.