Tottenham -Leeds    (lost)

After West Ham’s defeat, Leeds have already secured Premier League safety, so the pressure is basically gone for them. Tottenham are in a very different situation. Although Opta’s latest prediction has reduced their relegation probability to 12.35%, they are not completely safe yet and still need more points. A home game against a Leeds side that has already achieved its main goal is one of the best chances left for Spurs to collect three points.

Tottenham have won their last two away games, though the quality of those wins should not be overrated. They were not fully convincing against already-relegated Wolves, and Aston Villa’s motivation also looked questionable. Still, the mood around Spurs has clearly improved under De Zerbi. The club has called on fans to wear white, while a huge Tifo is expected in the South Stand, which should create a strong home atmosphere. Injuries remain an issue, but Solanke could return, and players like Gallagher and Palhinha can help Spurs win physical battles in midfield.

Leeds beat Burnley heavily last time out, but their squad is weakened. Starting forward Okafor is ruled out with a calf injury, while Struijk also missed training after a knock and is unlikely to be risked now that safety is secured. With Gudmundsson and other absentees also missing, Leeds’ immediate strength is limited. The market has also moved more strongly in Tottenham’s favour. Considering motivation, home support and squad context, Spurs are the better side to back here.