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Krumovgrad - Levski    (won)

3 goals not as improbable as bookies seem to think. Sure, Levski with a lot of unders and clean sheets but every game they allow 1 or 2 clear chances which are poorly finished. On the other hand Levski's numbers in attack are deflated considering they take 20+ shots vs minnows like Krumovgrad. What's more, out of bottom half level teams Krumovgrad probably play the most open football - poor in defense while creating chances. Usually bulgarian football is boring to watch because many teams play for 1-0 (basically everyone apart from Levski, Botev, Ludogorets from 'big' clubs and Beroe, Krumovgrad from bottom 6. Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Cherno More have scored and conceded a lot but generally their approach is cautious putting defense first and countering so goal difference a bit inflated)

Krumovgrad are not defense minded and Levski can play at high pace so for me these odds dont make sense.. cant put 1.60 on over 2.5 when Levski host Pirin who would obviously defend with 10 men for 90 mins and put 2.15 in a game where both teams will attack despite obvious difference in quality. Lets not forget Krumovgrad beat Ludogorets 3-1 in the season opener 
Published: 18-09-2023, 14:54 CET Pick: Over 2.5
Odds: 2.15 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: Bulgarian football
Date: 18-09-2023
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)



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