KuPS vs Lech Poznan    (won)

KuPS welcome Lech Poznan for this UEFA Conference League 1/16-finals 1st leg battle at Tammelan Stadion in Tampere on 19th of February. The hosts are a Finnish team, the visitors come from Poland. Tammelan Stadion is not KuPS' actual home stadium. It is located some 300 km from Kuopio. Yes, there will be a decent number of KuPS fans at the arena but home advantage is undoubtedly smaller than normal! A good number of very loud Lech Poznan fans are expected to travel to cheer for their team. In the league stage KuPS finished in 21st place - with seven points to their account. They won only one of the six games - but also lost just once. KuPS scored only six goals but defended well - allowing five goals. However, their number of expected goals against (xGA) was much bigger! Lech Poznan were significantly better - ending up in 11th place. They had a good goal difference of 12:8. According to Transfermarkt.com, a well-known source, the visitors are the much bigger team here. Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of some 43 million euros. The KuPS squad is valued at only about four million!

The main rationale behind this pick is the fact that KuPS have lost most of their best players after the league stage finished. It seems the bookies are not giving this factor enough emphasis. They are also in the middle of preseason.. Ultra-important midfielder Arifi, dangerous Polish striker Parzyszek, midfielder Oksanen and defenders and Cisse and Miettinen have all left! Striker Toure picked up an injury in KuPS' last match against VPS. It looked pretty nasty so his situation against Poznan is unclear..  Some new players have joined - and more will surely join before this massive game but KuPS will almost certainly be significantly worse than in the league stage. According to my sophisticated analysis the Poles have a 59% chance of winning. I - and most of the KuPS fans -  do not trust KuPS' new head coach Miika Nuutinen who failed at HJK - and 2024 at TPS, in the Finnish second tier. He is still a pretty inexperienced coach who does know a lot about the game but seems to lack the ability to actually beat formidable opponents in big games - excluding the Finnish Cup final last season. Rather amazingly Nuutinen's HJK failed to win any of the last 10 games in the Veikkausliiga last season - despite HJK being the most successful and richest club in Finland! Let's keep in mind that the Veikkausliiga is significantly worse than the Polish Ekstraklasa. KuPS have won only one of their last six games, losing 3/6. The win came in their most recent game, over VPS in the Liiga Cup. KuPS were priced around 1.50 to win and did deserve the three points but their performance as a whole did not really excite me.. KuPS recorded 13 total shots - three more than VPS. Yes, before this they took a point from Crystal Palace in London - 2-2 was the final score. The  expected goals (xG) numbers were 1.55-0.32. The hosts, despite pretty heavy rotation, recorded 10 more total shots and three more big scoring chances - 4-1 to be precise. In round 5 it was a goalless draw against Lausanne in Tampere. The xG numbers were 0.97-2.34. The Swiss visitors did not allow KuPS any big scoring chances - recording three themselves.

Lech Poznan have lost only two of their last 11 games, winning three of their five most recent matches. They are in 9th place in the Ekstraklasa with 26 points to their account. This is only six points less than the current leaders Wisla Plock have grabbed. I stress that their number of expected points (xPTS) is 29.32 They have netted the ball 30 times and have conceded 29 goals. However, their number of xG is 32.11 and the xGA is 25.02. In their last game they lost to Lechia Gdansk 1-3 at home. However, the final score is very misleading! Indeed, the hosts had a 72% ball possession and recorded a whopping 28 total shots. Poznan also generated 3.21 in xG - allowing the visitors only 1.05!  On the domestic league winter break Poznan won two of the three friendlies. In the last round of the league stage they beat Sigma Olomouc, a decent Czech club, 2-1 away from home. The Poles didn't allow the hosts a single big scoring chance - recording three themselves. The xG numbers were 2.69-1.34 in the Poles' favour.