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| PICKS | STAKES | PROFIT |
| 129 | 692 | -2.7 |
| YIELD | AVG ✓ ODDS | AVG ✗ ODDS |
| -0% | 2.05 | 2.04 |
| Full stats / Picks archive | ||
Leeds have a strong 1.50 xG for and 1.35 against at home, and they play consistently even against the very best:
Leeds – Man. United 1–1 (xG 1.28–1.29)
Leeds – Liverpool 3–3 (xG 1.37–1.96)
Leeds – Chelsea 3–1 (xG 1.66–1.42)
Leeds – City 0–1 (xG 1.34–1.69)
Sunderland took a lucky point against Bournemouth at the weekend and have very weak xG figures away from home (1.05 for and 1.89 against). Leeds were also clearly the best in the opposite match, with xG 1.96–1.06.
I'm betting on Leeds winning at home and see value down to around 1.90.
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