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Leeds - Sunderland    (lost)

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Leeds have a strong 1.50 xG for and 1.35 against at home, and they play consistently even against the very best:

Leeds – Man. United 1–1 (xG 1.28–1.29)

Leeds – Liverpool 3–3 (xG 1.37–1.96)

Leeds – Chelsea 3–1 (xG 1.66–1.42)

Leeds – City 0–1 (xG 1.34–1.69)

Sunderland took a lucky point against Bournemouth at the weekend and have very weak xG figures away from home (1.05 for and 1.89 against). Leeds were also clearly the best in the opposite match, with xG 1.96–1.06.

I'm betting on Leeds winning at home and see value down to around 1.90.





Published: 01-03-2026, 14:46 CET Pick: Leeds to win
Odds: 1.97 at Pinnacle


Category: English football
Date: 03-03-2026
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 5 (tipster's average: 5)



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