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Lokomotiv Moscow - Salzburg (lost)

Champions League » R5

Probably crucial game for both teams in this group when it comes about surving in Europe. Hardly any of these two could qualify to the knockout stage, beside Bayern Munich who is safe that probably should be also Atl Madrid. But this game is crucial for position No. 3 that leads to the knockout stage in the Europa League.

Loko is in better position. They are 0 3 1 so far with only loss came in meeting with Bayern on this same stadium, 1:2 was back then. But Russian team proved its quality. They have played better than anyone expected. Two draws against Madrid and 2:2 away draw in Salzburg. Even against Bayern that could be way better result from minimal loss. Loko had amazing chance at 1:1 score before they have conceded late in the match.

I have impression Lokomotiv is underrated with the offered odds. Salzburg except mentioned home draw vs Loko has lost all other games, away in Madrid as well both meetings with Bayern. The German team has scored even 9 times in two games against Salzburg, Atletico has scored 3 in game where Spanish team was heavily weakned. I understand it's Salzburg who plays like that, attacking so that's why they concedes a lot too when face strong opponents. But also in Austrian Bundesliga they weren't too much impressive. Lost from Sturm 1:3, couldn't beat Rapid 1:1. The truth is, Salzburg was impressive in last game in Austria when they have scored eight goals but against very easy opponent.

This team had also problems with Covid. Five to six players were infected till recently, while it was international break.

In the mentioned game when they have scored 8 goals, the team best scorer wasn't in the team due to injury he suffered in game against Atletico. They brought him to this travel to Moscow but it is not sure if he is going to play.

The bottom line, IMO odds around 2.60 on Loko for +0.5 are nice value. We could go for even odds with +1. But I have strange feeling that Salzburg could earn some late victory here. So +1 AH would give us only stake back.

In any case, I think this game should be decided late while I see solid chances for halftime draw.

Published: 01-12-2020, 17:55 CET Pick: Halftime X
Odds: 2.66 at Marathonbet

Category: European football
Date: 01-12-2020
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)

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