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Los Angeles Lakers - Miami Heat    (won)


NBA playoffs finals, Game 1 in series best of 7

So it's Lakers vs Heat, not much expected finals I would say. On the West everyone expected one of LA teams to go all the way but on the East I guess not many saw Miami to came out as a winner, at least not before playoffs started. 
I probably underestimated a little bit Miami, or better to say I overrated Bucks as well the Celtics. But no doubt Miami is great team, mix of experience and youth and well coached. Still, when I was mainly against them so far, hardly I could trust them now when they face Lakers who showed best basketball here in the bubble, at least IMO. Of course, there will be spots to back the Heat in this finals, depending on the result and first of all depending on the offered line. For example this tonight's Game 1 in theory is the time to maybe try with Heat. But, honestly I don't feel safe with offered handicap. I understand why it's only +4.5 or +5 in best case. Because bookies expect here possible surprise in G1. After all, if there was weak spot of LeBron James in the playoffs during his long career, then it's exactly G1. He has very negative record of G1 while in last 8 series (including 3 this postseason), he was terrible with 2-6. 
Back to this postseason, those weak G1 happened again. Losses vs Portland and vs Houston and then both times 4 straight victories. Against Denver it was good opening game but I would say due to fatigue of the Nuggets who were coming on short rest and after seven games against Clippers. 
Also, it should be mentioned how Miami usually was great in late stages of the games, usually they were closing well. In many occasions those were nice comebacks. Celtics couple times wasted big lead. I wouldn't be surprised if we see something similar also now and Miami at least covering if not winning this opening meeting. But, I will stick with LA Lakers and will trust them to open very strong and possibly make some initial advantage. After all, when they are going to if not right at the start when both, LBJ and AD are fresh and together on the floor? 
Also LeBron mainly was better early than late. Usually he was taking everything on his back early while late in the games mainly was looking for Davis or some other guy. I really got impression he is very tired in 4th Q no matter of 
great minutes management by Frank Vogel when his best player is in question. Still, there is no rule and the first time I mentioned this, LeBron first next time destroyed Denver Nuggets in the 4th Q. But still, at this point, if I'm on Lakers, I like them more early in the game. 
Published: 01-10-2020, 00:05 CET Pick: LA Lakers -0.5 first Q
Odds: 1.73 at bet-at-home


Category: NBA basketball
Date: 30-09-2020
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)



FairPlayBet 01-10-2020, 03:40
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