Marseille - Rennes    (won)

Marseille have taken a couple of heavy blows recently. In the Champions League last week, they were knocked out in bizarre fashion after Benfica overtook them on goal difference at the very end, meaning Marseille exited the group stage directly. Then at the weekend in the league, they squandered a two-goal lead against Paris FC and had to settle for a draw, leaving them 9 points behind the title pace—so a league title push is essentially off the table. At the same time, their position for a Champions League spot remains comfortable, so there isn’t much pressure there either. For Marseille, the Coupe de France is the one competition that can truly define the ceiling of their season.

Marseille invested close to €100 million in the summer window to build around Roberto De Zerbi’s system, and they strengthened again in January with new signings such as Ennevary and Timber. The French Cup is their last chance to salvage the season—and with PSG already unexpectedly eliminated from this competition, Marseille now look like the clear No.1 favourites to lift the trophy. Given they have gone 37 years without winning the Coupe de France, Marseille should be fully committed here.

Rennes, on the other hand, are in the middle of a tight battle for European qualification. They sold Jacquet to Liverpool for a significant fee in January; although he is technically expected to finish the season at Rennes, reports suggest he is in England finalising the move and will miss this match. Their talented young forward Meite has transferred to Al Hilal, Fofana has been loaned to Porto, and big-money January signing Zabiri has not completed registration yet—so his availability is uncertain.

pick Marseille - 1