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Melbourne United - SE Melbourne Phoenix    (won)

We had picks on the same teams already in games No1 and No2. 
In game 1, United destroyed SE with 18 pts difference (it was 33 in one moment).  We thought it would be similar in game 2, but surprisingly United lost that match 90-79 (they lost Q4 24-9).
There were more reasons for that defeat. Biggest problem was early 4 fouls for Landale who spent just 13 minutes on court in total. He is an important player offensively and defensively. Without him, SE forwards Creek and Weltzel played great matches with 26 and 20 points. Also, Sykes had a great game. He scored 26 also. These 3 players scored 72 out of 91 total SE points. It is not possible for all 3 to repeat performance of that quality.
Second important reason was the unbelievable 68 free throws. This was the worst refereeing I have seen for a long time. They whistled really everything. With so many games interrupted, more quality teams can not develop their game and find a rhythm. That was good for South East Melbourne.
No matter what, for 30 minutes it looked like United would take this quite easily, but in the last 10 minutes they were completely washed out from the floor and lost quarter 9-24.
So, there are few reasons why we are making the same bet for the third time. First, we all expect a big Melbourne United- Perth final and I am sure we will get it. There is no way all 3 SE players repeat that level of play, especially since Landal will play much more than 13 minutes for sure. Next, no way it will be 68 FT again. That means, SE will not get 15-20 extra "free points". OK, same applies for United but I guess scoring from the field should be easier for them.
And finally, I have a feeling they were too relaxed in game 2. They did not fight at all, they just played easily since they were convinced they would win it. And it really looked like they could not lose it. Now, they got a warning and they know there is no opportunity to fix this if they mess it up. I expect them to be in full concentration and 10+ win here.
I was hoping for a margin around 6. In that case I would take higher stake but since margin is higher I am going with regular stake
Published: 15-06-2021, 09:25 CET Pick: United -8
Odds: 1.98 at Pinnacle


Category: Australian basketball
Date: 15-06-2021
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 6)



Basketcase 15-06-2021, 10:22
If someone did not catch the odds, they are back now. 1,96 in Pinnacle

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