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Miami - Washington    (won)

The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Nats' last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami, and today we might see another good one to watch, and here is why.

The Nats do not hit badly at all on the road. I talked about this in the Cubs game, where they even won the series, which is not bad at all. They hit away from home with a solid .308 wOB, while they have a .299 wOBA at home. 

Washington will start with RHP Cavalli, who owns an ERA of 4.85, and he pitched even a little worse than that. He faced Miami last week at home: 3.60 ERA. But, on the road is where he struggles; in 3 away games, he allowed a total of 14 (!) runs.

For Miami, we will see RHP who owns a solid 3.08 FIP, which is a point better than his ERA. However, he struggled a lot as of late. In fact, in each of his last seven outings, he has allowed at least 3 runs. In the last four weeks, he has had an ERA of 4.58. The Fish score plenty of runs for Junk, though, indeed, Miami supports Junk big time with a whopping 6.17 (!) runs per game, which is insane for a team that does not score that much.

Keep in mind that both bullpens suck, especially that Nat's pen stinks it up to the joint, ranking dead last in ERA. 

Taking half a unit on the over 10.0 as well.
Published: 08-09-2025, 23:57 CET Pick: Over 9.0
Odds: 2.17 at Pinnacle


Category: MLB baseball
Date: 09-09-2025
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)



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