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| PICKS | STAKES | PROFIT |
| 158 | 839 | -1.5 |
| YIELD | AVG ✓ ODDS | AVG ✗ ODDS |
| -0% | 2.01 | 2.01 |
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Partly based on external tips from a good contact who follows Danish football closely, and partly on my own analysis. There are several factors that speak for few goals here.
First of all, this is a local derby. Midtjylland scored a lot earlier in the season, but have far from the same impact going forward now. Key offensive players are either injured or out of shape. They have indeed scored something, but in most games the xG is well below 1.5, and they are creating less than earlier in the season. Defensively they are solid, with what is probably the Superliga's best goalkeeper and a robust defense.
Viborg are also good at the back, but do not create much offensively. Here they are expected to produce little. Nine of their last nine games have ended with three goals or fewer, and three of the last four head-to-head matches have also gone under three goals.
I'm betting under 3 goals, where the bet is refunded if exactly three goals are scored. Playable down to 1.90.
20-05 
20-05 
