#Big play
Interesting line this is from a lot of angles and one run too short for these odds for sure and here is why:
First of all, we have two monstrous lineups. That Jays' lineup is so scary, under the new manager, they are rocking it and finally using their potential as they whoop all leader boards. Springer, Kirk, Vlad, Gurrel Jr, Chapman....you know how scary that is? I mean from top to bottom is deadly.
Minny also with a real good offensive lineup packed with stars: Arraez, Correa, Polanco, Buxton, and former Yankees Urshela and Gaby Sanchez.
No surprise that both teams hit up numbers OFF THE CHARTS. Indeed, both teams are in the top 10 as most powerful: Minnesota 8th with a .166 ISO and Jays 6th with a .172 ISO.
Pitching Matchup:
RHP Mahle came from Cincy, a solid pitcher when on. He owns an ERA of 4.40 and he is a guy that deserves better with a 9.83 K/9. However, his split is not that good and worrisome.
Vs lefties: .341 SLG/.277 wOBA
Vs Righties: .443 SLG/.331 wOBA.
Now, this is really interesting. Manager Schneider is expected to start with a lineup SOLELY with righties, and as I mentioned, all are superstars.
RHP Berrios is on the other side with an ERA of 4.96. He pitched a little better, but I watched him a lot and this is not his best season, to say the least with a problematic 1.73 HR/9. Also, he lost bite in his four-seamer, he is getting rocked on the four-seamer indeed as opponents hit a whopping .380 (!) off it.
So why is this interesting besides that he faces his former team here (and hence they know him well)? The Twins are in pitch value the 5th (!) best team in the majors this season vs the Fastball.
Berrios get's monstrous run support all season long, the over is 14-7 when he starts as Toronto scores a whopping 6.18 runs per game for him this season.
Toronto's pen has been red-hot, with a great 1.93 ERA in the last 14 days *(1st), but Minny with a 4.70 ERA during this very span (23rd).
Hence backing the over in this one.
18-08 
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20-08 