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Mornar Bar - Dinamo Tbilisi    (won)

Mornar Bar, having had the best home record in Montenegro, should feel that they have to make the most of this opportunity, as the away match in Tbilisi will be more difficult. Simo Medigovic is the manager who has led the team for over a year and compiled an accumulated 18-14-6 record, building a bit of a “hard to beat” aura at least domestically. They have not had too much of a squad turnover, with mainly offensive midfielder Demir Skrijelj (5+8) leaving for Vorskla. Now, the team might not possess the most quality but in these type of games it's essential to deliver at home.

Dinamo Tbilisi is a team under rebuild, if we can even call it that. They have an incredibly young team, the entire squad having an average of 21 years. They have appointed a foreign coach in the Austrian Ferdinand Feldhofer, who up until this point, did not have a job since 2022. He did have some decent results with Wolfsberger back in 19-21. For Dinamo, having sold some key players such as international midfielder Anzor Mekvabishvili, and central defender Saba Khvadagiani, and not really added any foreign-additions, but rather promoted academy products, makes this team interesting for the future, but for the moment more vulnerable, rather than competitive. A lot of inexperience should be exposed now in the European competitions, but this goes for Mornar as well who are not usually at this scene. 

Conclusion:
I feel the value sits with Mornar, even though they are not dominant by any means. Dinamo Tbilisi are always considered Georgias “flagship” team, but it’s a very different Dinamo this time, more of an ‘experiment team’ who are just in the beginning of their journey with a super young team. The slight advantage to Dinamo is that they are in the middle of the Georgian season and should have better match form, while Mornar are in almost pre-season mode, but my bottom line is that the Georgian 5th placed team, should not be favorites away to Montenegro's best home side. The +0.5 handicap looks good and will be my pick (basically Mornar to not lose here). Dinamo Tbilisi in it's current state should not be favorites away against any team at the moment (perhaps only against San Marino sides). Although I think they win in Tbilisi, I don't see an easy game in Montenegro.
Published: 09-07-2024, 18:57 CET Pick: Mornar +0.5 AH
Odds: 2 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: European football
Date: 11-07-2024
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)



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