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NY Islanders vs Columbus Blue Jackets    (lost)

My Projected Lines and the odds
The bookmakers opened the odds on this game at around 50% vs 50% for both teams, but since the opening, the odds are dropping on Columbus. Right now we can get nice price on NY Islanders at 2.10 (+110) or even more. 
I have projected (with my betting model), that NY Islanders will have around 52.26% of chance to win this game and my fair odds on Islanders are at around 1.91, while my fair odds on Columbus are at 2.09. Because of that I have the value on Islanders based on math model.

Match Up
Columbus beat New Jersey in the last game by 6-1, but they lost 5 previous games and 10 days ago they lost against Islanders on the road. I was expecting little bit more from this team this season and one of the biggest problems is playing on the road, where they allow 3.3 goals per game and their record is negative (11-16). 

They will face a team (Islanders) that have winning home record and score 3.6 goals per game. Not only, that they are high scoring team at home, they also score even more in last couple of games (4 goals per game in last 5 games). Islanders are 15-13 at home and they will have Halak in the net today, who is better option that Greiss. 

Columbus lost 4 out of last 5 meetings in New York and when those teams met in recent games, home team is 7-1. 

Reason for pick
Islanders are good home team, this is the pace where they show very good effort and it is not that easy to beat them. Columbus is not a good road team and they are also not playing their best ie hockey right now. I think that we have a wrong underdog here. I give little bit more than 50% of chance to Islanders in this one and anything above 2.10 is value play on home underdog. 
 
Play Islanders
Published: 13-02-2018, 20:33 CET Pick: NY Islanders
Odds: 2.16 at Marathonbet


Category: NHL ice hockey
Date: 14-02-2018
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 9 (tipster's average: 9)




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