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Naw - Schmitz    (won)

Tennis Point Exhibition Series

I'm questioning Naw's odds here, which are clearly too high for me. That's because he gained respect from bookies after his bad start in this competition, before that he was seen as an unknown young player with no ranking. Hazem is 8-9 here with real good wins in the past two weeks. I also want to say he met Challenger players almost all the time, having a 2-0 lead against Haerteis and tied at 1-1 against Brown and Puetz (who are strong indoors). Yes, Naw is coming from four losses in a row at the moment, but still he faced Hanfmann, Puetz, Hassan, Choinski... the best ones about this competition (excluding Hassan) and in none of these matches Naw lost easily. Schmitz is obviously a lower level player than all those mentioned so far, I have reason to think Naw is not underdog against him. The German is 10-15 here and just got 4 wins against Challenger players (13 losses)... Naw's stats have surely been better. But leaving aside that stuff, there is something wrong with these odds. Schmitz was priced around 3.20 against Hassan yesterday, while some days ago Naw faced Hassan and was priced 1.55. I think there were other matches with Naw having shorter odds than Schmitz. The format has changed since yesterday (now standard rules for at least the first two sets), I can't know if it's better or worse for Nam but the value seems to be on him in this one.
Published: 21-05-2020, 02:23 CET Pick: Naw
Odds: 2.5 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: ATP tennis
Date: 21-05-2020
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)




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