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New York Islanders - Washington Capitals    (lost)

My projected odds and bookmakers odds:

Bookmakers opened the odds at around +125 / 2.25 on New York Islanders and the public will go against them too. Which makes sense, because they don't have great season and basically they are almost out for the season. 

However, my betting model has them as a small favourite here and I have projected, that Islanders will have around 55% of chance and my fair odds are 1.80. Because of that I have a value on Islanders. 

Match up:
Washington Capitals are 39-30 to the season, but only 16-19 on the road. On the road they allow 3.4 goals per game and score only 2.8. In last 5 games they scored only 2.2 goals per game. 

They will start with their backup goalie Grubauer, but we must be honest, that from Sv% perspective he has a great season (0.926). He is 4-8 on the road. 

Islanders on the other side are 30-39 to the season, but they are very competitive at home. They are 16-16 at home and they are coming to this game after they beat Calgary on the road. Their first two goalies were struggling during whole season, but they started to play with Gibson, who played 3 games and has amazing Sv% of 0.957. 

Note also, that Islanders will be well rested (3 days rest) and they are 7-3 in last 10 games with 3 days rest or more. They are also coming back home after long road trip and they are 9-3 in last 12 home games following a road trip of more than 7 days. 

I think, that Washington is little bit overrated and they didn't prove us this season, that they are good road team. I believe that this will be much closer game and at the end Islanders will take the advantage of home field. 

Play Islanders 
Published: 15-03-2018, 19:30 CET Pick: New York Islanders
Odds: 2.26 at 5Dimes


Category: NHL ice hockey
Date: 16-03-2018
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 9 (tipster's average: 9)




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