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Newcastle-Chelsea    (lost)

Newcastle will welcome Chelsea in a match from the 23th round in English Premier League. I see in these match two teams who will receive exactly what they love- the hosts who love to wait and don't want the ball and the guests who like to control it and to attack. Both teams make high scoring matches against such opponents, so my bet for this game will be for goals.

Newcastle is 4-4-3 (11:12) on St James' Park and lost two consecutive games here in PL, but they were with many missing players  The hosts lost only one more game at home-against Arsenal (0:1), and that was in the first round, so they were in a series of eight games without losing at home. It seems that the injury crisis is beginning to ease, with forward Allan Saint-Maximin returning after a month out, also Joelinton and Fabian Schar are available again. Stil seven players are sidelined (only one of them is an attacker) and Andy Carroll is a doubt, but the situation is better than the past. The host failed to score against Leicester in the last home match in PL, but in addition to the many missing players, they missed out a great goal position when the result was 0:0 and then Leicester scored two fast goals after big defence errors (0:3 FT). Against Man City the match ended 2:2 here and I see something similar to happen and for today's match, like these previous two, because the opponent has the same running of the game. Newcastle made 1:1 against Wolves on Molineux, where it is difficult for each team to take something, and beat Rochdale with 4:1 at home for FA Cup, so they are back to their good games. For me the hosts will score at least one goal today.

Chelsea are 7-1-3 (25:19) in their visits so far and they feel much better when playing on the road. However, they did not allow a goal in only one of their away games-against Tottenham (2:0), but in this match Son Heung was sent-off in 62 min. and that's maybe it helped. For today only Dwight Gayle from the attackers is not available for Newcastle, so it will be difficult for them to succeed for a second time to do that. After 0:4 on Old Trafford Chelsea scored in every game after that, including two on Liverpool in UEFA Super Cup Final, so I have no doubt that the guests will score and today. Also there are still many shortcomings in Newcastle's defense (3) and midfield (3).

Newcastle is back to the strongests days after the injury crisis is beginning to setting. They always are capable to score at home no matter who is against them, but still has many missing players in back. Chelsea just can't stop to score and receive goals like a guest. The are with exactly 4 goals average per game. Over 2.75 goals on odds from over 2 is very attractive line in this match for me.
Published: 18-01-2020, 13:17 CET Pick: Over 2.75
Odds: 2.03 at Pinnacle


Category: English football
Date: 18-01-2020
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 5 (tipster's average: 6)




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