Noppon Saengkham (ranking 42nd) is in good shape in last weeks. This player slowly builts his ranking position from 2016, but his last seson was worse than before. But now he is on way to rebuilt ranking position, maybe to improve his best. In UK Championship play very good. All 3 his matches here Saengkham won clearly.
Ronnie O;Sullivan (ranking 3rd) plays this season well, but noticed 2 strong defeats agains Vafaei (0:5) and against Higgins (1:6). Here O'Sullivan show very good form.
H2H matches from 2014-2019: 2 0-0-2, frames 2:10.
Summary: of course bookmakers are right with opinion, that O'Sullivan is favorite to win. But Saengkham is in very high disposition, too. For this reason I am not going to bet on the match market. I always look for a betting option that has value and also feels relatively safe. In my opinion good place to bet is the centuries market. O'Sullivan builds centuries only a little more often than Saengkham in this season, but in UK Championship he construct them 50% less than his todays opponent. Saengkham builds centuries on world class level in this season - once on every 8,17 frames. In this tournament he constructed 2 centuries in every match. Among all the available options on this market, the safest choice, and at the same time well-paid, is over 0.5 breaks of Saengkham and I recommend this one. The other options in this market seem to be good to bet too, but I feel them more risky. The reason for my opinion is that O'Sullivan is doing less than he could to build 100 point breaks. Often he just doesn't care enough about it. In order to have a chance against O'Sullivan, Saengkham has to control the white ball very well and try win frames with one visit at the table.