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North Korea U23 - Saudi Arabia U23    (won)

North Korea are expected to fix this match but I think they didn't bet to this match themselves, yet. I agree this final round on this group may end up in massive farce if both DPRK and Myanmar bet against themselves but Iran and Saudi Arabia don't want to score because the group situation.

Odds are simply bullshit and actually inverted unless you know the result beforehand but I don't think anyone knowing the result already bet this match.

I think probability for North Korea to fix this match <2/3 (but if it is only over North Korea have 5-10% chance to win)
So probability for North Korea to not fix match >1/3

If North Korea don't fix match they are big favorites like 60%. 1/3*0.6 = 0.2

So everything above 5 is certainly value.

Reasons why I think North Korea fixing probability even lower than 67%:
- if they win this match they will get the easiest path to semifinal from any team in this tournament (round 16 Bangladesh, round 8 UAE/Indonesia/Pakistan/Bahrain)
- in pre-match fixing conference they maybe realized that Saudi Arabia maybe don't want to finish 1st in this group
*this could result in awkward situations where North Korea want to concede but Saudi Arabia don't want to score
*North Korea already received a written warning from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90bkLu_bmfw but it was over 1 year ago so maybe something like that happen today
- played in Indonesia makes it interesting, President Sukarno of Indonesia was friend of Kim Jong Un grandpa. He named a flower after him (Kimilsungia)

Published: 20-08-2018, 10:06 CET Pick: Democratic people from Korea
Odds: 5.46 at Pinnacle


Category: International football
Date: 20-08-2018
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 5 (tipster's average: 10)



Remy 20-08-2018, 11:14
Abdul for president, king and queen of betting :D
drink 20-08-2018, 12:56
gg
dsobol 20-08-2018, 15:09
An of course i missed an easy winner cause of time difference sighhhhh

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