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Novak Đoković - Rafael Nadal    (won)

Australia » ATP ATP Cup Finals » Serbia vs Spain

One of biggest rivalry ever. Even 54 times they played each other with Djokovic leading 28-26. Of course, when playing on this hard court surface, the Serbian player holds much bigger edge. Namely, looking only meetings on this surface, it's 16-5 in favor of Novak and without loss in last six such (since 2013). So, it's obvious why he is the favorite today. But not just due to past mutual records on hard, but also due to everything what both have showed now early in 2020 season. They were winning but there was small doubt for both how good form that really was. At the end after matches against Shapovalov and Medvedev, it turned out Novak is the real deal already now while Nadal was struggling much more and even lost once (from Goffin) although being huge favorite in that match.

I believe Djokovic is going to win. Odds for ML are not too great while I'm afraid a little bit of handicap and especially I'm afraid of 2-0 set betting. Cause, I see as very possible Nadal taking one set. So, to increase somehow value, I opted for this 'double result' option (first set/full match), 1/1. I don't think the mentioned possible set for Nadal could be the opening set. When these great players meets each other and one of them is clearly better in that moment (like Novak is now), if we see all three sets, usually underdogs takes the second one. 
In general (no matter if we have clear favorite or it's 50-50), very rarely was the case to we had a comeback win. Namely, in even 47 out of 54 mutual meetings, the player who won the opening set, was also winning the match. 

Published: 12-01-2020, 05:27 CET Pick: 1/1
Odds: 1.66 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: ATP tennis
Date: 12-01-2020
Option: HT/FT
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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